DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/18 10:51

DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/18 10:51 Corn, Soybean, Wheat Futures Lower at Midday Corn futures are 5 to 6 cents lower at midday; soybean futures are 18 to 19 cents lower; Chicago wheat is 16 cents lower, Minneapolis wheat is 7 cents lower and KC wheat is 12 cents lower. David M. Fiala DTN Contributing Analyst MARKET SUMMARY: Corn futures are 5 to 6 cents lower at midday; soybean futures are 18 to 19 cents lower; Chicago wheat is 16 cents lower, Minneapolis wheat is 7 cents lower and KC wheat is 12 cents lower. November crude oil is down $3.22 and Dow Jones futures are up 117 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.31 and December gold is down $11.90. December silver is down 22 cents. CORN: Corn futures are 5 to 6 cents lower at midday with chart pressure and harvest pressure. Outside markets are limiting downside. Bulls were hoping for a turnaround Tuesday and some fresh friendly news as harvest as of today believed to be past the halfway point. The midday pressure does not have the market thinking this will be a turnaround day. Weekly Crop Progress report had 94% of the crop listed as mature versus the 92% five-year average. Harvest progress was at 45% versus the 40% five-year average. Crop conditions were down 1% at 53% versus 60% good to excellent a year ago. The weekly export inspections Monday morning were at 448,423 metric tons (mt) which provided no support with the strong dollar having the market think the USDA export estimate could come down further than the reduction seen last week on the WASDE. In the big chart picture, corn is trading within the range of recent weeks. On the December chart, trade slipped below the 20-day moving average at $6.82, which is nearby resistance now. Support is at $6.71, the two-week low, then the $6.67 50-day moving average. SOYBEANS: Soybean futures are 18 to 19 cents lower at midday; meal is $10 lower while bean oil is 100 points higher. Outside markets have the stock market higher, with the DOW up 500 points, crude is down over a buck, which is providing midday pressure. The dollar is slightly higher. The bean oil, outside markets and the good inspections number Monday were friendly, but this hasn't helped due to harvest pressure and now some chart pressure. The harvest progress was listed at 63% on the Monday afternoon report versus the 52% five-year average. The weekly crop ratings were unchanged at 57% good to excellent. South America has mixed overall conditions that may promote sideways trade with the futures in the lower part of our fall range. The expectation for more planted South American area has contributed to the lower trade this past month. Futures tested the downside two weeks ago and bounced last week, but then closed below the 20-day moving average Monday, turning the chart lower. That level is now resistance on the November contract sitting at $13.95. Near-term support is at $13.71, the 10-day moving average, then the $13.50 two-month low, then the $13.39 lower Bollinger Band. WHEAT: Chicago wheat is 16 cents lower, Minneapolis wheat is 7 cents lower and KC wheat is 12 cents lower at midday with spillover pressure from beans and corn. There is also some chart pressure. The upward momentum appeared to peak about a week ago with most wheat futures contracts now testing, or below, near-term support levels. The weekly export inspections were low at 231,842 mt Monday morning. The weekly progress report showed 69% of the winter wheat crop planted versus the 68% five-year average. Emergence was only at 38% versus the 44% five-year average. Dry weather in areas will keep the last third of the crop plantings slow, and emergence slow with poor crop ratings expected this fall. This should limit downside longer term. The KC December chart has major support down at the 50-day moving average at $9.24; the 20-day moving average at $9.71 is nearby resistance. David Fiala can be reached at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala (c) Copyright 2022 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.