DTN Midday Livestock Comments 11/21 11:46

DTN Midday Livestock Comments 11/21 11:46 Cattle Charge Higher Thanks to Friday's Supportive Cattle on Feed Report The livestock complex is trading higher as the market sees strong interest from traders and believes its fundamentals will compliment the move. Elaine Kub Contributing Analyst GENERAL COMMENTS: The livestock complex is trading higher into Monday's afternoon as the cattle contracts trade bullishly thanks to last Friday's Cattle on Feed report, and the lean hog market is soaking up some of the positive spillover energy. The cash cattle market could see trade as early as Tuesday as it's a holiday shortened week. December corn is down 5 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $2.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 36.43 points. LIVE CATTLE: The live cattle market gapped higher at the day's start as the market is excited to trade after last Friday's extremely bullish Cattle on Feed report. The live cattle complex is trading higher as the market finally sees the fundamental support it was needing from the COF reports. Boxed beef demand, throughput and cash cattle prices have all been supportive of the market, but until the most recent COF report, the data that the COF reports shared wasn't jiving with the rest of the market. But from now on and well into 2023, bullish COF reports are expected as the market simply doesn't possess as many cows as it did in years past. It's tough telling what this week's cash cattle market will do, given that it's a holiday shortened week, but it was interesting to note that packers bought 83% of last week's cash cattle for the nearby delivery which points to the fact that they're still somewhat short-bought and in need of cattle. December live cattle are up $0.37 at $153.45, February live cattle are up $0.82 at $156.65 an April live cattle are up $0.82 at $160.07. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 90,590 head. Of that, 75,229 head (83%) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining 15,361 head (17%) were committed to the deferred delivery. Most of last week's business took place on Wednesday and Thursday, though there was a little clean up trade that happened on Friday. In the Southern plains cattle traded for $148 to $152 live, but mostly at $150 to $151, which was steady to $1.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. In the North dressed cattle traded for $236 to $252, but mostly at $242, which was fully steady with the previous week's weighted average. Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.25 ($254.62) and select up $1.14 ($233.97) with a movement of 68 loads (42.44 loads of choice, 10.12 loads of select, 6.26 loads of trim and 8.79 loads of ground beef). FEEDER CATTLE: The corn complex is trading $0.04 to $0.06 lower heading into Monday's afternoon, which is helping propel the feeder cattle contracts higher. The combination of cheaper grain prices and Friday's bullish Cattle on Feed report led to a higher gap in the feeder cattle contracts at Monday's start, and has since allowed for the market to continue to trade higher ever since. It's important to note that, during the year's biggest placement month of October, there were 6% fewer cattle placed last month than a year ago, which is also the lightest October placement data that the COF report has seen since its start, over 26 years ago. January feeders are up $1.75 higher at $182.52, March feeders are up $1.80 higher at $184.92 and April feeders are up $1.67 higher at $187.77. LEAN HOGS: The lean hog complex is mostly rallying into Monday's afternoon as traders note the slight uptick in midday pork cutout values and expect to see strong cash interest early this week as it's a holiday-shortened week and packers won't likely participate in the market after Wednesday. At this point, holiday buying for Thanksgiving has already happened, but steady demand is expected to keep prices chopping mostly steady. December lean hogs are down $0.55 at $83.67, February lean hogs are up $0.50 at $90.05 and April lean hogs are up $0.32 at $95.25. The projected lean hog index for Nov. 18 is down $0.80 at $86.97, and the actual index for Nov. 17 is down $0.37 at $87.77. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.01 with a weighted average of $81.75, ranging from $80.00 to $90.00 on 3,762 head and five-day rolling average of $83.56. Pork cutouts total 210.15 loads with 180.48 loads of pork cuts and 29.67 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.56, $94.00. ** Cattlemen are eager for supply and demand mechanics to swing their way, but the market isn't completely free of hurdles as bearish concerns about the U.S. and global economies loom. Hear DTN Livestock Analyst ShayLe Stewart's thoughts on the 2023 cattle market at the all-virtual DTN Ag Summit on Dec. 12-13. Full details available at http://www.dtn.com/agsummit (c) Copyright 2022 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.